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節后紙張市場平穩開局 各種因素交織新年行情

發布時間:2019-02-15     文章來源:中國紙業網      瀏覽量:616

國際原油價格高位整理、人民幣增值回暖、煤價底部橫盤、紙漿期貨繼續上漲為春節長期期間宏觀成本面的主要特征。

宏觀面

1.央行決定調整普惠金融定向降準小微企業貸款考核標準,從單戶授信小于500萬調整為單戶授信小于1000萬,這將引導金融機構更好滿足小微企業貸款需求。

2.商務部公布的最新春節消費情況看,全國零售和餐飲企業實現銷售額約10050億,同比增長8.5%。僅僅七天的春節消費市場,正式突破萬億大關,但增速有所放緩。

3.國家發改委:2月4日至10日,全國共發送旅客4.21億人次,比去年同期增長0.35%。

4.新一輪中美貿易高級別措施將于2月14-15日在北京舉行。

了如紙掌

1.節后紙張市場開始活躍,2月13日廢紙價格繼續保持上調態勢。繼原紙漲價,紙板價格也開始有所上調,但后續新增產能的不斷兌現,會對2019年的包裝紙市場形成復雜的影響,上漲動力有待觀察。

2.浙江富陽紙廠的關停騰退2019將進入最后階段,預計有115家造紙企業實施關停。

3.盤點2018紙漿價格波動,基本呈現先高后低的格局,最高點在8月份的6200/噸附近,最低點在年底的5200附近,年平均價格在5700/噸。

4.從行業毛利率水平對比,目前包裝紙類還是處于各紙種的較高水平,瓦楞紙的平均毛利率在18%左右,大大高于文化紙和白卡紙的毛利率水平。

5.春節過后,文化紙價基本穩定,訂單表現一般,成交并未見活躍,整體市場的平衡格局暫未明顯變化,預計還將橫盤一段時間。

成本面

價哨所

20190214:春節后整體紙張市場基本平穩,原紙拉動包裝紙有小幅上漲動力,各生產環節正在陸續開工,成本面暫無大的波動影響,節前文化紙、白卡紙的漲價落實在下半月會有所體現,3月份整體市場能否真正轉好繼續推動價格上揚,尚難以精準預測,需要觀察。

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